Hard Turn

A NASCAR BLOG BY Jeff Owens

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Fantasy week 18: Coke Zero 400

Jul 2

Do you believe in miracles? Jamie McMurray does. So does Ryan Newman.

They are the last two drivers to win at Daytona, and both did so in improbable fashion.

McMurray pulled off a stunning upset to win the Pepsi 400 last July. Newman’s victory was a milder surprise, winning the Daytona 500 in February.

What does that mean for this week’s race?

For fantasy players, not much. If you expect McMurray to win again, you’re taking a huge gamble.

Newman has a better shot, but even that seems like a longshot the way his team has run since Daytona.

No, this is a weekend when you want to stick with the favorites and take a close look at the teams that typically run well in restrictor-plate races.

Group A

This should come down to a Hendrick Motorsports vs. Joe Gibbs Racing duel, with Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson battling Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch.

Though Hendrick has been strong in restrictor-plate races in recent years, Stewart and Busch get the nod this time.

Stewart won the July race at Daytona in 2005 and 2006 and was in position to win his first Daytona 500 in February before getting steamrolled by Newman and Kurt Busch. He should be a serious threat again.

Busch led the most laps in the Daytona 500 (86) and scored his first restrictor-plate win at Talladega in April. He should be in contention for his sixth win of the season.

Group B

Newman will make a lot of rosters based on his Daytona 500 victory. But this group could also come down to a Hendrick vs. Gibbs showdown.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. won the July 2004 race, and now with Hendrick should be a threat, though he and his Hendrick teammates didn’t work so well together in February. Still, you can hardly pass up Earnhardt Jr. in a restrictor-plate race.

Also expect Denny Hamlin, who led 32 laps in February, to give Gibbs a third car that could win.

Group C

McMurray will be the favorite of most based on his victory last year, but don’t expect him to pull off another upset. His team has shown no signs of being close to winning and finished 26th at Daytona in February.

Instead, keep an eye on Dave Blaney, Elliott Sadler and Reed Sorenson, who all had solid runs in the Daytona 500. Of those, Sadler, who always seems to run well at Daytona, is the best bet to repeat.

And don’t forget about Juan Pablo Montoya, who was in the hunt in February and finished second to Kyle Busch at Talladega. His daring driving style makes him a legitimate threat at Daytona.

Group D

David Ragan or Brian Vickers, take your pick.

Group E

Fresh off his runner-up finish at New Hampshire, Michael Waltrip finally has a bit of momentum, and there’s no track where he is better than at Daytona, where he has three of his four wins. This is one of the few weeks where picking him is a no-brainer.