Hard Turn

A NASCAR BLOG BY Jeff Owens

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Fantasy Week 31: Bank of America 500

Oct 10

If you are in the hunt for the league championship, now is no time to be taking wild gambles.
      With the Chase For The Sprint Cup heating up, and the legitimate championship contenders coming into focus, the top three or four drivers should be on top of their game this weekend at Lowe’s Motor Speedway. You should act accordingly, making sure they are in your lineup.

Group A

      That means either Jimmie Johnson or Carl Edwards from this group.
    Though Johnson hasn’t won at Charlotte since 2005, the Hendrick Motorsports driver was dominant there just two years ago, winning four straight points races. With the points lead in hand, he is unlikely to have a letdown at one of his favorite tracks.
      Edwards has yet to win at Charlotte, but the Roush Fenway Racing driver runs well on 1.5-mile tracks. He finished fifth in this race last year and was ninth there in May.
      Don’t be surprised if this one comes down to another fender-rubbing, wall-banging finish between Johnson and Edwards as we saw a few weeks ago at Kansas Speedway.
      If you want go against the flow and take a bit of a gamble, keep an eye on the winless Jeff Gordon. The four-time Cup champion is bound to snap his winless streak soon and has a good history at Charlotte. He won this race last year and had one of the fastest cars during a recent test there.

Group B

      Despite last week’s wreck at Talladega, Roush Fenway’s Greg Biffle is still in the thick of the championship race and should contend for his third Chase win at Charlotte.
      Biffle finished second there in May and also had one of the fastest cars in the recent test.
      Jeff Burton clawed his way back into championship contention last week and also runs well at Charlotte. The Richard Childress Racing driver finished fourth in this race last year and was sixth there in the spring.
     Gillett Evernham Motorsports’ Kasey Kahne has been the man to beat at Charlotte in recent years. He swept both points races there in 2006 and won both the Coca-Cola 600 and Sprint All-Star Challenge there in May.
      But Kahne has struggled since an early-season run and has shown very little resemblance to the driver who was a weekly threat in May and June. It’s almost as if this team has given up since it didn’t make the Chase.
      My advice: Stay away.

Group C

      While Kahne might be a big gamble in Group B, his Gillett Evernham teammate is a good pick in Group C. Elliott Sadler had a solid eighth-place run at Charlotte in May and is coming off a strong showing last week at Talladega. He’s as good a bet as any in this group.

Group D

      Eventually, David Ragan is going to break through and win a Cup race, and Charlotte is a likely place for it to happen. Several Cup drivers – Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte, Matt Kenseth, Jamie McMurray, Casey Mears – scored their first career victories at the 1.5-mile track. Ragan could be next in line.

Group E

      The Michael Waltrip Racing cars should again be your best bets in this group. Waltrip had his best run of the season at Charlotte last year, finishing 10th in this race. Teammate David Reutimann finished 10th there in May.