Hard Turn

A NASCAR BLOG BY Jeff Owens

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Fantasy Week 24: Bristol Motor Speedway

Aug 21

Races at Bristol can be among the hardest to handicap for fantasy players.

Why?

You never know who is going to get his car dialed in and take off. Though there have been dominant performances and streaks over the years, they sometimes change as quickly as the weather.

Kurt Busch, for instance, was the man at Bristol from 2002 through 2004. Since then, Matt Kenseth has had two dominating performances there.

In between, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kevin Harvick both scored their first Bristol wins. And since Kenseth’s last win in 2006, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards and Jeff Burton have all won.

That could be encouraging news for a handful of drivers who are still scrambling to make the Chase For The NASCAR Sprint Cup.

With just two races to go before the Chase, Harvick, Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne, Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer and David Ragan all need strong runs to secure a spot in the field that will determine the 2008 Cup champion.

And with the exception of Ragan, who was 21st, all of them had good runs at Bristol in the spring.

Group A

Kyle Busch and Edwards won the two races at Bristol last year, and based on their performances this season, figure to be the favorites at NASCAR’s most exciting track.

Kenseth is also a good bet to turn things up a notch on a track where he has two dominating performances in the past three night races.

Harvick and Bowyer finished second and third, respectively, during an RCR sweep there in the spring, so expect them to be strong again. Gordon, meanwhile, has fives wins at Bristol and desperately needs a strong run to stay in the top 12.

Also, don’t count out Kurt Busch. He once dominated Bristol and, despite his team’s struggles, could be a strong contender again.

Group B

Burton won the spring race at Bristol, while Biffle wound up fourth. Though both are in the middle of the pack among Chase contenders, both still need strong runs to solidify their spot. While they may not win, both should be in the top 10.

Kahne and Hamlin, currently 11th and 12th, respectively, in points, both finished in the top 10 in April and desperately need solid runs to stay in the hunt. Kahne finished second in this race last year. With both on the bubble in the Chase standings, they will probably race conservatively, doing their best to stay out of trouble and score a decent finish. Don’t expect them to win; but they could finish in the top five.

Group C

Bristol is a track where there are few surprises and few dark horses with a legitimate chance to win. A driver and team are going to have to come up with some clever pit strategy to pull a major upset at Bristol.

The last driver to do that was Elliott Sadler, who scored his first career win at Bristol in 2001 with the Wood Brothers.

Based on the way he has run with Gillett Evernham in the second half of the season, Sadler would be a good pick here. Bobby Labonte also finished eighth at Bristol last August.

Group D

Ragan is tied for 13th in the race for the Chase and could sneak into the top 12 with a good run at Bristol. Expect him to be on top of his game.

Brian Vickers is also not out of contention yet and can gain ground on the top 12 with a good run. As has been the case all season, they are your best bets in this group.

Group E

This is a group with no good choices for a tough track like Bristol. Everyone in this group likely will be near the rear of the field and lapped quickly. Their challenge will be to just stay out of trouble and finish.

Your best bets are drivers with a lot of experience. That means Michael Waltrip, Joe Nemechek or Ken Schrader, who will be driving the Hall of Fame Racing car this weekend.