Hard Turn

A NASCAR BLOG BY Jeff Owens

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Fantasy Week 23: 3M Performance 400

Aug 14

There are few tracks on the NASCAR Sprint Cup circuit where the field is as wide open as at Michigan.

The last six races there have been won by six different drivers, and since Bill Elliott’s reign in the 1980s, there has rarely been a dominant driver on the 2-mile oval.

Why?

Because the track at Michigan is so wide, it has multiple grooves, allowing plenty of side-by-side racing and rarely allowing one driver to check out on the field. It is also a track where fuel mileage and pit strategy often come into play, leading to some upsets and surprise winners.

Jeremy Mayfield won this race in 2005 on fuel mileage, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. won the race there in June in similar fashion.

Who will it be this time?

There are numerous possibilities.

Group A

This might be one of the few weeks in which Kyle Busch is not the overwhelming favorite. Busch finished a mediocre 13th there in June, giving the rest of the field a bit of hope.

It is also not a track that favors Jimmie Johnson, who has yet to win at Michigan. In fact, a Hendrick Motorsports driver had not won there since Jeff Gordon in 2001 until Junior stretched his fuel mileage in June.

The favorites from this group are Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth. Edwards won there last year and was seventh in June. Kenseth has two wins there and was third in June. He always seems to run well on the 2-mile track and has plenty of incentive as he fights for a spot in the Chase.

Group B

Though Earnhardt Jr. won in June, he did not have the dominant car; he merely came up with the winning strategy. After last week’s debacle at Watkins Glen, the odds of his crew pulling another rabbit out of their hat are not good.

Kasey Kahne is the favorite here. He won at Michigan in 2006 and finished second there in June. He has been a contender on most of the big tracks this year, with wins at Charlotte and Pocono.

Also keep an eye on Greg Biffle. He has not won a race this season but tends to run well at Michigan. He was the last driver to score back-to-back wins there (2004-2005), and his Roush Fenway Racing organization and Ford are typically strong at the track Ford and GM call home.

Group C

Two drivers in this group have teamwork on their side. Elliott Sadler should be a contender based on Kahne’s prowess at the track, while Jamie McMurray should get some help from his Roush Fenway teammates.

Also keep an eye on David Gilliland and Travis Kvapil. This is a horsepower track, and few teams generate more horsepower than Yates Racing.

Group D

As has been the case all season, this group has only two drivers worth considering, but they are both good ones.

Brian Vickers finished fourth at Michigan in June and typically runs well on the bigger tracks. His Red Bull Racing team has shown vast improvement, and a win is not out of the question.

Roush Fenway’s David Ragan has been the other biggest surprise of the season. He finished eighth at Michigan in June and could also win before the year is over.

Both are in a fight to make the Chase, so expect them to be on top of their games at Michigan.

Group E

AJ Allmendinger, Vickers’ teammate, finally cracked the top 35 in owner points, taking tremendous pressure off of him and his team. With the pressure off and the ability to finally focus on the race instead of qualifying, Allmendinger could be in the hunt for another top-10 finish.