Hard Turn

A NASCAR BLOG BY Jeff Owens

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Fantasy Week 20: Allstate 400

Jul 18

The Allstate 400, formerly known as the Brickyard 400, is one of NASCAR’s most prestigious events each year. As a result, it tends to bring out the best in NASCAR’s top stars.

There are very few flukes at Indy. In fact, the list of previous winners reads like a Who’s Who of NASCAR. The only surprises were Ricky Rudd’s victory in 1997 and Bill Elliott’s in 2002, and those were big-name, successful drivers that pulled off mild upsets only because of their team situations at the time – Rudd winning with his own team, and Elliott winning after his move to Evernham Motorsports.

The last three Brickyard winners were Tony Stewart (twice), Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson, demonstrating that the cream clearly rises to the top at Indy.

Group A

Kyle Busch should be your prohibitive favorite given that he has won almost everything else this season. With seven victories and a big points lead, why shouldn’t he also win one of the biggest races of the year?

To bet against Busch might only bring more disappointment.

However, the three most recent winners at Indy – Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon – are all well worth considering.

Stewart has won the big race at his hometown track two of the past three years. And now that his big announcement – he’s headed to his new Stewart-Haas Racing team next year – is out of the way, he should be ready to relax and embark on one of his summer hot streaks.

Johnson won at Indy in 2006, the year he claimed the first of two straight championships. Though Johnson has struggled a bit this season, he showed signs of life last week at Chicago. He should be back on his game at the Brickyard.

Another Indiana native, Gordon has four wins at Indy, twice as many as any other driver. He finished third last year and could use another win at his home track as a springboard to a strong second half.

Though Kevin Harvick won the 2003 Brickyard, I would stay away from him this year. He has simply not run well enough this season to merit much of a look.

Group B

This group has all sorts of enticing possibilities.

Mark Martin, for some reason, has practically predicted he will win this year at Indy, and what a feel-good story it would be if he pulled it off. Not one to typically make such boasts, Martin obviously believes he will have a strong car.

Kasey Kahne finished second to Stewart in 2005 and always seems to run well at Indy. He also won in June at Pocono, the track most similar to Indy.

Denny Hamlin excels on flat tracks – two wins at Pocono – and has the power of Joe Gibbs Racing behind him. Expect him to be a strong contender as well.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. participated in the Goodyear tire test at Indy, so he should have his car dialed in and have a jump on the competition.

Greg Biffle, Jeff Burton and Martin Truex Jr. are also strong enough to win at Indy.

Who do you pick?

While Kahne and Hamlin are the best bets, it’s hard to bet against Martin when he’s that confident.

Group C

Though he has struggled this year, Juan Pablo Montoya finished second at Indy last year and the 2006 Indy 500 winner certainly knows how to get around the track. He’s the best gamble in this group.

Group D

Brian Vickers participated in the Indy tire test with Earnhardt Jr., perhaps giving him a leg up on the competition.

Coupled with the success he has already had this season – and an impressive history at Pocono – Vickers is a strong choice in this group.

Group E

Based on his experience and open-wheel performance at Indy, Sam Hornish Jr. is a no-brainer in this category. He could be this year’s Montoya, parlaying a strong Indy 500 record into a strong Brickyard run.