Hard Turn

A NASCAR BLOG BY Jeff Owens

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Fantasy Week 16: Toyota/Save Mart 350

Jun 19

On the one hand, this might be the easiest race of the season to handicap, because there are only a handful of drivers who excel on road courses and who are consistent threats to win in NASCAR’s two Sprint Cup road races.

On the other hand, NASCAR’s top drivers seem to get better and better on the winding tracks, and there are always some surprises. Taking a few gambles and hitting on one or two of those surprises could pay big dividends.

Group A

Though Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards and others have shown improvements on road courses in recent years, there are three drivers in this group who are overwhelming favorites to win.

Jeff Gordon leads all drivers with seven career victories on road courses, including five at Infineon Raceway, his hometown track.

Tony Stewart is close behind with six career road-course wins, two at Infineon. Together, they have won three of the past four races at the Sonoma, Calif. track.

Harvick, another California native, has not won at Infineon, but won at Watkins Glen in 2006. He is always a serious threat at Sonoma, however, finishing second there a year ago.

Group B

There are a lot of intriguing possibilities here, including Jeff Burton (third), Greg Biffle (fifth) and Denny Hamlin (11th), who all had solid runs at Infineon last year.

Hamlin could be a particular threat. He finished second last year at Watkins Glen and has a road-course victory in the Nationwide Series at Mexico City.

Martin Truex Jr., sixth at Watkins Glen last year, is also worth considering. He, too, won at Mexico City in the Nationwide Series.

Any of those could finish in the top five, or find themselves in contention for the win.

Group C

There are two no-brainers in this group; the question is, which one to pick.

Robby Gordon, a perennial contender on road courses, won at Infineon in 2003 and also has a victory at Watkins Glen.

Juan Pablo Montoya, a former Formula One star and another road-racing ace, scored his first career Cup victory as a rookie last year at Sonoma.

Though both have struggled this season, you absolutely must pick one of them in this group. I’d give the edge to Montoya, who also won last year at Mexico City and has the backing of a team that has been highly successful in road racing.

Group D

There is one name here that jumps out – Dario Franchitti.

Having raced in both Champ Car (formerly CART) and the IndyCar Series, Franchitti has significant road-course experience, though not in stock cars. Montoya proved last year, however, that the transition is not all that difficult in road races where most of the drivers have limited experience.

If Franchitti makes the race – he will have to qualify on speed – he could be a dark horse for Chip Ganassi Racing.

Group E

There are two other former open-wheel drivers with significant road-course experience in this group – Patrick Carpentier and AJ Allmendinger.

With Gillett Evernham Motorsports, Carpentier could be a factor, as could Allmendinger with a much-improved Red Bull Racing team. Keep in mind, though, that, like Franchitti, both must make the race on speed.

This group also includes some road-course ringers who could be surprise contenders. Boris Said, Ron Fellows and Max Papis are drivers to keep an eye on if they have a ride for the race.