Can Earnhardt Jr. make it at the varsity level?

By Kris Johnson

Monday, January 14, 2008

Article Rating: 1.7
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Step outside the considerable shadow cast by Junior Nation - a millions-strong throng of fans whose intensity rivals those waving Terrible Towels in Pittsburgh for their Steelers or die-hard denizens of New England backing the beloved BoSox - and you can hear the whispers.

Just how good is Dale Earnhardt Jr. anyway? Is he even a top-10 caliber driver?

Let's examine his body of work. Since he began his Cup career on a full-time basis in 2000, Junior's average finish in points is 10.38. During that eight-season span he has averaged 2.13 victories per year. Solid numbers, but not otherworldly by any means.

For the sake of comparison, Kurt Busch, who began his full-time Cup career one year later than Junior, has an average points finish that is slightly less (10.71), but one mitigated by his 2.43 average win total over seven seasons. Busch's numbers also gleam a bit brighter next to the 2004 Nextel Cup resting on his mantel.

Earnhardt Jr. versus Busch. A good matchup if you're trying to pit two drivers, at similar stages in their careers, who are more or less equal.

It'd be a nice undercard for the feature bout between two of Junior's new teammates.

During the first eight years of Jeff Gordon's career, he reeled off three championships with a 5.25 average finish in points and 6.5 wins annually. Jimmie Johnson, on his torrid pace of the last two years, is poised to shatter both those benchmarks. In his six full seasons, he has two Cup crowns, a mind-boggling 2.67 average points finish and 5.5 wins on average per season. If you strip all emotion out of the debate - admittedly, not an easy thing to do any time NASCAR's most popular driver is part of the discussion - and examine pure production as told by the numbers, Earnhardt Jr. grades out as a good driver, not a great driver.

Will that be enough at Hendrick Motorsports, where two of the greatest already reside? Earnhardt Jr., at 33 years of age, is clearly stepping up in class. He's already noted the difference in intensity and work ethic at Hendrick versus Dale Earnhardt Inc. Can he match the mettle and professionalism of Gordon and Johnson?

The good news for Earnhardt Jr. is he now drives for the best team in NASCAR. The bad news? If Junior's future performance is not commensurate with Hendrick's sustained level of excellence, there will be nothing to explain away his shortcomings. His time is now. He has something to prove, and not to any member of the media, but to himself.

Much will be written about Earnhardt Jr.'s ability to perform, or not, at Hendrick Motorsports. It wouldn't surprise me if he wins the Daytona 500 and, at least temporarily, puts such talk to rest. For now, though, these truths appear to be self-evident where Earnhardt Jr. is concerned:

  • He is one of the most down-to-earth and likable drivers in NASCAR.
  • He is the face of NASCAR because of who his father happened to be.
  • He attracts sponsor dollars based more on pedigree than performance.
  • Those corporate dollars are well-invested because nobody pushes more product.
  • He's won 17 times in 291 Cup starts.
  • He hasn't won since May 2006 at Richmond.

Success in NASCAR can be defined by many measures. SportsBusiness Journal, Scene's sister publication, had Earnhardt Jr. ranked third among all drivers last year on its 2007 NASCAR Brand Leaderboard for sponsor placement. The publication attached a value of $42,764,539 to Earnhardt Jr.'s 4,744 detections for sponsor placement. Not bad for a guy who finished 16th in points and failed to visit victory lane. The only two drivers ahead of him on SBJ's list? Johnson and Gordon, who also finished 1-2 in the standings.

The point is Junior doesn't have to run at the front of the pack to be NASCAR's most successful driver in ways that matter (i.e. pitchman and popularity). The question is, though, can he? And for the reason that matters most as a competitor.

"It is time for me to compete on a consistent basis and contend for championships now," Earnhardt Jr. said upon announcing his decision to leave DEI last May.

For his sake - and that of Junior Nation's - they can only hope that time has truly arrived.

NS

Average Rating: 1.7

Comments

8 responses to "Can Earnhardt Jr. make it at the varsity level?"
  1. 1
    emily bagwell said:
    Jun 19, 2008 at 4:45 PM

    People like you who have put undue pressure on Junior with garbage like this. You do not have a clue about what Junior fans are about and you never will. Give the guy a chance since he just left a h#$%- hole and needs a bit of time. It seems Mr. Hendrix is pleased with his progress as he professed on "Victory Lane." So, I guess you'll just have to find soething else to write about.

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  2. 2
    McReal Name said:
    Jun 30, 2008 at 3:05 PM

    no.

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  3. 3
    sally whan said:
    Jul 6, 2008 at 12:00 PM

    I think Jr has all that it takes to make it at Hendrix because he is right at the top with Gordon and Johnson and now Martin is going there what a team they will have...Jr is one of the best drivers out there and heck he just is getting use to the best car and team he can have and forget the bad at you know where...Jr and his team is doing a great job and by the end of the season you all will see where he is...heck he is second now what more could you ask for when he is new there and all his crew is new and they have to work together and get it together Gordon and Johnson have been with there teams forever so give him and his team a chance...He will be the one,,,Jr keep going the way you are and dont listern to no one...You are the BEST....love ya

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  4. 4
    Melissa Combs said:
    Jul 16, 2008 at 8:58 AM

    You must be a Kyle Busch fan and that says it all, that guy has no regard for anyone but himself. Junior Nation is devoted because the driver we love is a decent human being and runs a clean race every week. Rick Hendrick knew what he was doing when he signed Junior on. Unfortunately there will always be haters like you out there.

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  5. 5
    4da88 said:
    Aug 8, 2008 at 7:48 AM

    Kris, Now that we are over half way to chase, anything you would like to change? Do you still feel Jr might not make it?

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  6. 6
    Susan Coley said:
    Aug 13, 2008 at 7:30 PM

    I really believe that Dale has matured in racing and is ready, willing and able to pull off a Championship!! He can drive and the rest is left up to Tony Jr. and the team! It's time to get down to business and "kick it"....Dale Jr. style!!

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  7. 7
    Susan Coley said:
    Aug 13, 2008 at 7:32 PM

    I really believe that Dale has matured in racing and is ready, willing and able to pull off a Championship!! He can drive and the rest is left up to Tony Jr. and the team! It's time to get down to business and "kick it"....Dale Jr. style!!

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  8. 8
    howard owen said:
    Aug 15, 2008 at 8:12 PM

    this is the stupidest question ive ever seen dale jr. is and has been at the varsity level for some time. some writers just cant stand it. that he is nascars most popular driver. ill root for him as long as he races even if he doesnt ever win a cup championship. busch will never be the class act dale earnhardt jr. is

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