Steve Waid: It’s still early, but the title seems like Jimmie Johnson’s to lose
Hendrick Motorsports' Jimmie Johnson celebrates with his wife, Chandra, in victory lane after winning last Sunday's NASCAR Sprint Cup AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway. // David Griffin, NASCAR Scene
COMMENTARY
With eight races remaining in The Chase For The Sprint Cup, it doesn’t make sense to cede the championship to Jimmie Johnson.
There’s a good ways to go yet.
Even after he won convincingly at Dover, for his 15th career victory in the Chase (in 52 races), to close to within 10 points of leader Mark Martin, Johnson can still suffer an ill turn of fortune over the next eight weeks.
Yeah, maybe, but don’t expect that to happen. Certainly his rivals don’t.
Even Martin, who has won five times this year and at this point is surely on track to win his first career title, admits that Johnson is going
to be hard to beat.
“I’m sure the dude’s Superman,” said Martin, who added that he thinks Johnson and his Hendrick Motorsports team seem to intensify their efforts during the Chase.
Johnson, who is now tied with Bill Elliott for 14th place on NASCAR’s all-time victory list with 44 wins, has been in every Chase since 2004, the year it was introduced.
He finished second to Kurt Busch in ’04 and was fifth in 2005, the year Tony Stewart won his second title.
And, of course, Johnson won the championship the next three years in succession.
A driver who has never finished lower than fifth in the eight-year history of the Chase, and won three titles, seems to have a firm grip on how to race in NASCAR’s playoff.
Johnson has said the biggest reason he’s been the ultimate Chase driver is the schedule. The tracks are very good for his team.
He’s the defending champion for the upcoming race at Kansas, where he’s finished among the top 10 five times in seven races.
At Auto Club Speedway in California, he won the track’s second race the past two seasons. He’s won five times in 16 races at Lowe’s Motor Speedway. He’s won five of the past six races at Martinsville.
The only track in the Chase at which he hasn’t won is Homestead, but by that time, that may not make much of a difference.
But, as said, there are eight races remaining and this is not the time to offer Johnson the title elegantly wrapped with a bow on top.
Hey, let’s reiterate that Martin is leading this thing with an average finish of 1.5 in two Chase races. If he can keep that up, or at least come close to it, well, that’s a championship.
Juan Pablo Montoya, who has put together a string of solid performances, is in third, just 55 points behind Johnson. And Kurt Busch, in
fourth, is 65 points in arrears.
At this point, you can’t really rule out anyone in the top 12 – well, you could, but mathematically they are all still in it.
But for most of them, Johnson – and a few others – are going to have to tank for them to have any chance.
Oh, yes, Johnson could tank. But few, if anyone, think he will.
As for Johnson, he knows the only thing that matters is how he and his team perform. They have control over that and little, if anything, else.
They have already repeatedly shown what masterful control over performance they have in the Chase.
That’s something with which their rivals are very familiar. And it’s why that in the opinion of most of them, right now, the championship is
Johnson’s to lose.
