PREDICTIONS: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon and the Busch brothers get the nod to win at Las Vegas
Kurt Busch will start on the pole for the Shelby American at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. // Sam Cranston, NASCAR Illustrated
Despite his marvelous record at Auto Club Speedway, none of our illustrious panel experts picked Jimmie Johnson to win last week’s race.
Unlike Johnson, we don’t seem to have the proverbial horseshoe that he benefited from last week. None of us have picked the winner of the first two races and, collectively, we only have eight top-five finishes among our 40 top-five picks.
Kris Johnson has jumped out to an early lead in our season-long competition. Though he has no wins yet, he seems to be mastering the art of points racing.
But this is Las Vegas, where gambling is king and everyone is betting that their luck will turn.
And, alas, it appears that everyone is going out on a limb again, offering up four drivers with a chance to beat Johnson, who has three wins at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Here are this week’s picks and a look at how we’ve done so far:
Kris Johnson
Wins: 0
Top-5s: 2
Last week‚s pick: Jeff Gordon
Last week‚s points: 108
Total points: 283
THIS WEEK’S WINNER
Kyle Busch
In the last five Cup races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the hometown hero boasts the best average finish (5.2) and number of points (808). He’s the only driver to crack the 800-point threshold in that time span and second-ranked Johnson is 66 points behind.
Busch won this race from the pole last year. He also has to be chomping at the bit after losing a sure top-five at California due to an unlucky break on pit road (read: exact opposite of what happened for Johnson en route to the win).
Top Five:
1. Kyle Busch
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Jeff Burton
4. Greg Biffle
5. Jeff Gordon
Kenny Bruce
Wins: 0
Top-5s: 1
Last week’s pick: Carl Edwards
Last week’s points: 124
Total points: 212
THIS WEEK’S WINNER
Jeff Burton
Ride the hot hand. And few organizations are hotter right now than the three Richard Childress Racing teams.
All three RCR drivers – Burton, Clint Bowyer and points leader Kevin Harvick – are worth taking a look at here. But the fact that Burton has enjoyed plenty of success at Las Vegas, where he’s a two-time winner in Cup, makes it easy to see why he should be considered the favorite in the bunch.
In spite of his team’s struggles in 2009, Burton still finished third at Las Vegas, and he’s also a three-time winner in the Nationwide Series at the 1.5-mile track.
Top Five:
1. Jeff Burton
2. Tony Stewart
3. Jimmie Johnson
4. Kevin Harvick
5. Mark Martin
Bob Pockrass
Wins: 0
Top-5s: 3
Last week’s pick: Mark Martin
Last week’s points: 165
Total points: 262
THIS WEEK’S WINNER
Kurt Busch
His brother won from the pole last year, and Kurt will win from the pole this year. And this time the winning Busch won’t have to start in the rear, as Kyle did a year ago, after an engine change.
This is Kurt’s day to shine, and his victory will have an interesting twist with Steve Addington, Kyle’s crew chief last year, being the crew chief for both wins.
LVMS could become the Busch playground. In fact, it might be best to pick Kyle to finish second, but will this be one of those days where he pushes the car so hard to win at his hometown track against his brother that he makes a mistake late in the race? We’ll see.
Top Five:
1. Kurt Busch
2. Mark Martin
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Juan Pablo Montoya
5. Kyle Busch
Jeff Owens
Wins: 0
Top-5s: 2
Last week’s pick: Juan Pablo Montoya
Last week’s points: 57
Total points: 183
THIS WEEK’S WINNER
Jeff Gordon
I like Gordon’s confident, upbeat attitude this weekend. He had a fast car in practice and qualifying and seems to have a spring in his step despite a disappointing start to the season.
Gordon needs to bounce back from setbacks at Daytona and California and the Hendrick teams are still the group to beat. Though RCR and Roush are closing in, they’re not there yet.
This will be Gordon’s week to shine – the week when he finally upstages Johnson and Mark Martin, his Hendrick teammates.
Top Five:
1. Jeff Gordon
2. Jeff Burton
3. Greg Biffle
4. Clint Bowyer
5. Matt Kenseth
