PREDICTIONS: Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin, the Busch brothers the drivers to beat at Bristol
Kurt Busch (center) and crew chief Steve Addington won at Atlanta two weeks ago. Busch has five wins at Bristol. // Sam Cranston, NASCAR Illustrated
Picking a winner at Bristol Motor Speedway should be easy, right?
You go with the usual suspects – Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon – right?
Not necessarily. Someone is always gaining an edge, and losing one, at NASCAR’s toughest short track. First it was Gordon, then Kurt Busch and, lately, Kyle Busch. But others, like Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards, have shown a knack for the high-banked track in recent years.
Bristol is as tough to predict as Daytona and Talladega. You know who the favorites are, but you never know who is going to get taken out in a wreck, or who is going to get lapped during a surprising, long, green-flag run.
Here’s this week’s picks and a look at how we’ve done so far:
Bob Pockrass
Wins: 0
Top-5s: 6
Last week’s pick: Juan Pablo Montoya
Last week’s points: 170
Total points: 490
THIS WEEK’S WINNER
Kyle Busch
So I go on the radio and I pick Kyle Busch earlier this week, and then he qualifies 38th. So what do I do? Be smart and change my pick?
No.
Kyle won the last two races at Bristol and three of the last six. He will be the driver who wins the first and last race with the rear wing.
Top Five
1. Kyle Busch
2. Kurt Busch
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Matt Kenseth
5. Mark Martin
Jeff Owens
Wins: 0
Top-5s: 6
Last week’s pick: Jimmie Johnson
Last week’s points: 127
Total points: 485
THIS WEEK’S WINNER
Carl Edwards
I was all set to pick Kyle Busch to make it three in a row, but then he stunk it up in practice and qualifying. He and new crew chief Dave Rogers just don’t have it together yet, so I think his streak at Bristol ends.
Edwards is a man on a mission. He desperately wants to win and put all the controversy between him and Brad Keselowski behind him. He also has a new feud brewing with Kevin Harvick, who is also good at Bristol and has a way of getting under people’s skin.
Edwards and his team have struggled for a year, but this is the one track that is more driver than car. He has won twice here. He’ll take out a year’s worth of frustration on the field Sunday.
Top Five
1. Carl Edwards
2. Kurt Busch
3. Matt Kenseth
4. Mark Martin
5. Kasey Kahne
Kris Johnson
Wins: 0
Top-5s: 5
Last week’s pick: Mark Martin
Last week’s points: 64
Total points: 470
THIS WEEK’S WINNER
Kurt Busch
Joe Gibbs Racing's Kyle Busch will get the lion's share of prerace attention, and deservedly so, after sweeping Bristol's Sprint Cup events last season.
But don't forget he did so with crew chief Steve Addington, who now guides the No. 2 Penske Racing team of Kurt Busch. Earlier this week, Kyle had this to say about his older brother: "He'll be fast there, especially with Addington. They'll know what they're doing there. They'll be somebody we have to worry about.”
Addington did not hide the satisfaction in getting Kurt to victory lane before Kyle this season after winning at Atlanta. Surely, that fire still burns somewhere inside Addington after being unceremoniously removed from his post at JGR.
Top Five
1. Kurt Busch
2. Mark Martin
3. Kyle Busch
4. Marcos Ambrose
5. Denny Hamlin
Kenny Bruce
Wins: 0
Top-5s: 5
Last week’s pick: Mark Martin
Last week’s points: 64
Total points: 406
THIS WEEK’S WINNER
Denny Hamlin
Kyle, his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, swept the two races at Bristol in 2009, but Hamlin’s always been a contender here on the high banks. His last four finishes at Bristol? Fifth, second, third and sixth.
His 15th-place starting position shouldn’t pose a problem – three of those four top-five finishes came after he qualified outside the top 20. It’s been a slow start for Hamlin thus far in 2010, but expect the Virginia native to turn it around this weekend.
Top Five
1. Denny Hamlin
2. Kurt Busch
3. Marcos Ambrose
4. Joey Logano
5. Matt Kenseth
