Jeff Owens: For Dale Earnhardt Jr. and these nine drivers, the final 12 Sprint Cup races are crucial

COMMENTARY

For 12 drivers, a new season will begin Sept. 19 with the Chase For The Sprint Cup.

For the other 30 or so full-time drivers, their focus will be on trying to win a race, improve their teams for next year or simply get better as drivers with NASCAR’s new car and new spoiler.

For drivers like Jamie McMurray, Ryan Newman, David Reutimann and Juan Pablo Montoya, they may miss the Chase (though McMurray still has a shot), but at least they have the consolation of having won a race.

They likely will be Chase contenders again next season and will focus on winning again, improving their teams and gaining momentum for next season.

Kasey Kahne, Paul Menard, Marcos Ambrose and Bobby Labonte all have landed new rides for next season and hope to finish on a positive note with their current teams.

But for some drivers that do not make the Chase, the final 12 races of the season are crucial.

Some are looking for new rides or sponsors for 2011. Some must prove they can get the job done with their current team and crew.

And some are racing just to survive, hoping to show enough progress to stick in NASCAR’s elite series.

Here’s a look at the non-Chase drivers that have the most to prove over the final third of the season:

1. Mark Martin – Martin likely will miss the Chase and wind up as the year’s most disappointing driver a season after winning five races and finishing second in points.

His mission over the final 12 races is simple: Figure out what the heck went wrong and what his team and car need to run better.

Martin, 51, has one year left at Hendrick Motorsports and would like to race somewhere else beyond that. He must bounce back or whispers about his age will start to emerge.

2. Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Earnhardt Jr. is trying to stop two years of struggles with Hendrick, and it appears that neither he nor his team know where to turn next.

Earnhardt Jr. and crew chief Lance McGrew have made only slight progress this season. After finishing 25th in points last year, they are currently 18th. What’s worse, they were in position to make the Chase at midseason until stumbling badly over the past six races.

Earnhardt Jr. and team owner Rick Hendrick must decide what to do next. Does Hendrick make another crew chief change? Or do Earnhardt Jr. and McGrew enter next season trying to fix what didn’t work this year?

Unless they show significant progress over the final 12 races, there could be big changes to this team.

3. Martin Truex Jr. – Truex Jr. was expected to be a Chase contender in his first year with Michael Waltrip Racing, but he and crew chief Pat Tryson have been wildly inconsistent, producing just one top-five finish.

Though the team has shown flashes of potential, it has lagged behind the team of teammate Reutimann, who has a win and five top-fives.

Truex and Tryson must use the final 12 races to build some chemistry and show some progress if they hope to be Chase contenders next year.

4. Joey Logano – Logano has some major damage to repair, and not just on the cars he has wrecked. He also must repair his reputation in the garage after several run-ins with veteran drivers.

Logano, 20, clearly has talent, but harnessing it has been a challenge. He was expected to be a more consistent contender in his second Cup season with Joe Gibbs Racing, but has produced just two top-five finishes and stumbled to 21st in the standings.

Logano needs to show more maturity and experience on the track to realize his vast potential and earn respect in the garage. He also must produce better results to stick with one of NASCAR’s elite organizations.

5. David Ragan – Two years ago, Ragan looked like one of NASCAR’s brightest young stars, scoring 14 top-10 finishes and finishing 13th in points.

But he has taken big steps backward the past two seasons, finishing 27th in points last year and currently running 24th.

His problems have been partly due to the overall struggles at Roush Fenway Racing, but Ragan is still lagging far behind his veteran teammates. He has one more year on his contract with Roush and must show major progress in the next year.

6. Brad Keselowski – As promised, Keselowski has created quite a stir in his first full Sprint Cup season, but the results have not been positive.

The intense, spirited Keselowski has been involved in ugly confrontations with both Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch, and all three incidents resulted in him being wrecked.

When he hasn’t been in the wall or into it with other drivers, Keselowski simply hasn’t run well at Penske Racing. After 24 races, he has no top-10 finishes and is 25th in points.

Though controversial and entertaining, Keselowski has a lot to prove – on and off the track.

7. Scott Speed – The former Formula One driver has had a tough time adjusting to stock cars. Though he had some good runs early in the season, he has stumbled to 27th in the standings a year after finishing 35th.

Now he appears to be the odd man out at Red Bull Racing with Kasey Kahne joining the team and Brian Vickers expected to return next season.

Speed likely is racing for a second chance and new opportunity over the final 12 races.

8. Sam Hornish Jr. – Like Speed, Hornish has struggled making the transition from open-wheel cars to stock cars. And like Speed, he has shown flashes of potential, occasionally leading races and running at the front.

But he is just 28th in points in his third full season and needs a sponsor to continue at Penske Racing. He needs a strong finish to help attract a sponsor or secure an opportunity with another team.

9. Elliott Sadler – Sadler is in the midst of his fifth straight disappointing season and appears to be at a career crossroads.

He is leaving Richard Petty Motorsports at the end of this season and is looking for another Cup ride. Unless he can strike a last-minute deal with another team, he could be headed to the Nationwide or Truck series.

10. Robby Gordon – Gordon’s single-car team is fighting to stay in the top 35 in owner points, securing a guaranteed spot in the first five races of next year. But more importantly, he needs sponsors to keep his underfunded team afloat.

Whether Gordon or young Kevin Conway is behind the wheel, the team needs to show some progress down the stretch to improve its outlook for the future.