Jeff Gluck: Loopy-sounding or not, driver rating holds the answers

For most of the season, I’ve been engaged in a friendly wager with a guy named Josh Hamilton who works for NASCAR Public Relations.
 
Each week, we pick four drivers (one from each manufacturer) and add up their combined finishes. The person with the lowest total wins.
 
We’ve turned it into a season-long competition, which has highlighted the right way to pick drivers and the wrong way.
 
It seems Hamilton has a vastly different method of selecting his drivers than I do. He analyzes the prerace driver rating – the mysterious loop-data-generated statistic NASCAR always talks about – and uses it to make his selections.
 
Me? I don’t need any of that overhyped mumbo jumbo. I just know which drivers are good at certain tracks and pick accordingly.
 
I go with my gut. Hamilton goes with the computers.
 
Guess who usually wins?

That one.
 
This week, I finally surrendered after Hamilton won for the 11th time in our 14 contests. His overall lead is now so massive, it makes Kyle Busch’s Chase deficit look smaller than a lug nut.
 
And as a result of the beat-down, Hamilton has won a prize: This fabulous column on SceneDaily.com.

Yes, it’s true. I’ve seen the light and am here to sing the praises of the driver rating. Hallelujah!
 
Week after week, Hamilton would top off his picks by announcing who the winning driver would be. A startling number of times, he was correct.
 
No, that doesn’t mean conspiracy theorists have been right all along (and if you believe NASCAR rigs the races, you might as well just quit reading right now, because you’re not smart enough to keep up with this next part); it just means there’s more to that silly driver rating than I cared to admit.
 
In fact, Hamilton’s associate, Mike Forde – who is the lord of the loop data, kind of like the Frodo of driver ratings – passed along some facts to show what an idiot I’ve been by ignoring this valuable tool.
 
Forde explained that Hamilton’s use of the driver rating was far better than the combination of my knowledge and occasional peeks at a driver’s average finish.
 
“Denny Hamlin has averaged a finish of 13.5 at Richmond this year,” Forde said. “Was he better than 13th at Richmond this year? Of course – he led 381 laps in the spring, but a blown tire dropped him to 24th.
 
“But Hamlin had an average driver rating rank at Richmond of 3.0. That’s more like it.”
 
As Forde noted, the driver rating stat takes “racing deals” – like a busted engine or ill-timed accident after leadng most of the race – into account.
 
“It’s more indicative of a driver’s performance than the finish,” he said.
 
Forde claims to be winning two of his three fantasy racing leagues – but he’s also a New York Giants fan, which makes me wonder if maybe it’s just this guy’s lucky year.
 
Though if you look at the numbers – which I was previously too stubborn to do – the secret to Forde and Hamilton’s success is obvious.
 
• In 20 of the 30 races this season, the top-rated prerace driver has scored a top-10 finish. The No. 1-rated driver has finished in the top five a total of 11 times. With all the crazy things that can happen during a race, that’s pretty good.
 
• Race winners this season have come from the top 10 in driver ratings 18 times. That’s more than half of the events, and 12 times the driver who ended up in victory lane was ranked in the prerace top five.
 
Clearly, this driver rating thing is gold for fantasy leagues, friendly wagers and not-so-friendly wagers that involve money (although I can’t imagine any NASCAR fans doing such a thing).
 
So where can you find it? Right now, because of the large number of nonbelievers such as I was, the data is very scarce for the average fan. A web site called profantasysports.com has it, but I’ll try to post the top drivers in my blog each week for the rest of the season until we figure out a way to get all of the data on SceneDaily.com.
 
For now, I’ll leave you with the top five in driver ratings for Charlotte: Jimmie Johnson (116.5), Kyle Busch (98.7), Kasey Kahne (98.4), Mark Martin (91.5) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (89.7).
 
Judging from the rest of the season, there’s a 40 percent chance that one of those drivers will win the race. So if your gut says “Kevin Harvick” (winner of the ‘07 All-Star race but 27th in driver ratings at Charlotte), you might want to stop being a bozo and think again.

• Mentioned Drivers:
• Clint Bowyer