Fox, TV networks concerned about NASCAR’s loss of young, male viewers, continuing decline in ratings
COMMENTARY
David Hill worries about NASCAR losing young men.
Not on the track, but on sofas and bar stools. Hill, the top executive at Fox Sports, points to steep drops in young male viewers – the key audience for any major league sport – as a primary reason for NASCAR’s five-year ratings swoon since hitting historic highs in 2005.
“The biggest problem facing NASCAR is that the young males have left the sport,” he says. “And if I was NASCAR, and I was an owner (of a race team), it would be something that I would be burning the midnight oil on a nightly basis, worrying where they’ve gone and how do I get them back.”
With Fox closing out its 13-race portion of the NASCAR schedule on Sunday at the Coca-Cola 600, Hill sees cause for optimism, as well as caution flags.
Fox attracted an average of 8.3 million viewers per race in 2009, according to figures compiled by sister publication SportsBusiness Daily. This year, Fox will likely finish with an average hovering near 8 million viewers for each race, which, if it holds, would represent a slight decrease.
And, according to Fox, ratings among men 18-34 are down 29 percent from last year.
There are, as always, several caveats with the audience comparisons. The season-opening Daytona 500, the most popular race on the schedule, suffered this year because it faced direct competition from the Winter Olympics.
Races in Texas and Virginia were forced to run on Monday after rain delays.
Lower ratings mean lower ad rates and sales. That is simple math, Hill says.
Humpy Wheeler, a former speedway executive and current industry consultant, says the combination of falling attendance and TV ratings likely means NASCAR needs a shake-up.
Blaming the economy for NASCAR’s woes is a convenient but incomplete excuse, he says. Considering shorter races offers one possible solution, Wheeler says.
Hill agrees to a point – but also has concerns.
Shorter races could satisfy shortened attention spans in a world of 140-character messages, but condensed races would also leave less time for commercials, making it harder to justify the traditional hefty rights fees paid by the networks.
And yet, “The length of the race is something that we should definitely look at,” Hill says.
Outlining the challenges of raising ad rates when audiences are smaller, as well as the potential impact of shorter races creating more financial pressure, Hill says, “We’ve got ourselves in a bit of a conundrum here.”
In general, viewership is a concern not just for Fox and the rest of the NASCAR broadcasters (hello, TNT and ESPN), but also for NASCAR, the tracks and the teams.
All of NASCAR, especially the tracks, has come to depend on generous rights fees from the networks as the one dependable income source available.
The current TV deal began in 2007 and ends after the 2014 season, paying out a total of $4.5 billion. Tracks keep 65 percent of TV broadcast fees.
Without consistent, significant ratings gains in the next few years, NASCAR could be forced to accept a lower rights fee next time around.
Part of that is driven by ratings – which have been a disappointment through the early part of the current contract – as well as a radically altered economy for networks and everyone else since the last NASCAR TV deal was negotiated in 2005.
Talks are expected to begin between NASCAR and the current network partners in 18 to 24 months.
Before those concerns emerge, Hill notes the race teams face even steeper challenges signing multi-million-dollar car sponsors if the TV audience continues to shrink. Those are stark words for a sport whose recent corporate losses include Allstate, DeWalt Tools and Old Spice, among other defectors.
“If I was a team owner, I would be watching those rating points like a hawk,” Hill says. “Because what those rating points mean is how much I can sell sponsorships on my car for. If they’re down, I’m not getting the dollars I expect. To me, the people sighing the biggest sigh of relief would be the team owners.”
NASCAR Chairman Brian France and other top executives pledged a more open approach as the 2010 season began. France met with all of the teams and drivers, as well as broadcast executives, looking for ideas on how to get the sport back into a growth mode.
Hill sees mixed results thus far.
“Well, I’d like to see some evidence,” he says. “I think that there’s been a lot of talk, and a lot of input gained. I’m just hoping to see a NASCAR initiative very soon which is going to reclaim that lost (young male) audience.”
Despite those concerns, the Fox Sports chief considers the current season a success for his network. Several races showed gains as the season has gone on, a hint of momentum that could stretch into the TNT and ESPN portions of the NASCAR schedule.
“You can spell it p-h-e-w, exclamation point, exclamation point,” Hill says. “We might be out of the woods. It’s what the public’s telling us. The changes that NASCAR made at the start of the season are having the impact that we hoped.”
Those changes include a move toward more consistent start times (typically 1 p.m. for East Coast races), greater latitude for drivers to take aggressive stances on the track per NASCAR’s encouragement and replacing the rear wing of race cars with a more traditional spoiler, a move made, in part, to appease fans.
Hill also believes the competition on the track has improved compared with recent years.
“It’s been great racing,” he says.
