David Exum: Jeff Gordon will lead the pack and win the 2009 Cup title

By David Exum - SceneDaily Staff Writer
Sunday, February 01, 2009
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Hendrick Motorsports' Jeff Gordon finished seventh in the final 2008 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series standings.

Jason Smith
Getty Images

COMMENTARY

With the Daytona 500 just 14 days from now, I’ve decided to put together a list of 12 drivers that I predict will make this year’s Chase For The Sprint Cup.
   
Here, in order, are my predictions on how each of the 12 drivers will finish in the Chase:

1. Jeff Gordon – The four-time Cup champion won’t only make the Chase but will finally win the fifth title that he has been seeking since 2001. Gordon won’t start the Chase as the top seed, but I have confidence that this is his year. You might think I’m going out on a limb picking Gordon, but I predict he’ll win six to seven races in 2009.

2. Jimmie Johnson – The defending and three-time Cup champion will go into the Chase as the top seed, but won’t be able to beat Gordon for the championship during the final race of the season at Homestead-Miami Speedway. While my prediction about Johnson could be dead wrong, I don’t see the likelihood of him winning his fourth straight Cup championship. No NASCAR team is that good.

3. Carl Edwards – Even though plenty of people are predicting that Edwards will win his first Cup championship this year, I just don’t see it happening. Edwards will not be as dominant as he was in 2008 nor will he win another nine races like he did in 2008. If he’s lucky, he’ll win four or five. Edwards, like the rest of the drivers at Roush Fenway Racing, just aren’t going to be able to keep up with the juggernaut that is Hendrick Motorsports. According to racing-reference.info, if there was no such thing as the Chase, Edwards would have won last year’s championship by 16 points over Johnson.

4. Dale Earnhardt Jr. – He’ll make the Chase and win some races, but Junior Nation is going to be disappointed once again because he’s not going to win the Cup championship in 2009 and I doubt he ever will win the title - the problem with the No. 88 team isn’t Earnhardt Jr., it’s his crew chief, Tony Eury Jr. Until Rick Hendrick decides to pair him with another crew chief, Earnhardt Jr. will not win a championship.

5. Mark Martin – That’s right, all four Hendrick drivers will make the Chase. Martin is one of the finest drivers in the sport today and with Alan Gustafson as his pit boss, Martin is going to be a threat to win his first Cup championship.

6. Kasey Kahne – What happened to Kahne in 2008 certainly won’t happen again. He was poised to make the Chase until he failed to finish two consecutive races late in the season (Michigan and Bristol) and his Chase bid was ruined. Surely the merger of Petty Enterprises and Gillett Evernham Motorsports will help put the driver of the No. 9 Richard Petty Motorsports Dodge back in contention.

7. Matt Kenseth – Until Jack Roush realizes Kenseth needs Robbie Reiser or his equivalent as Kenseth’s crew chief, the Cambridge, Wisc., native won’t win another championship. Last year also marked the first time in Kenseth’s career that he went winless since his rookie season in 2001.

8. Kyle Busch – He was second in wins in 2008 with eight and was the top seed heading into the Chase, but Busch’s maturity level and his ability to deal with adversity remain in question. Busch has shown that when he’s good, he’s really good, and when he’s bad, he’s terrible. There’s no in between with him, and that’s a sign of his immaturity.

9. Martin Truex Jr. – The driver of the No. 1 Chevy out of the Earnhardt Ganassi stable is the dark horse for the 2009 Cup season. If not for the fact that his crew chief Kevin Manion was suspended for six races last season, Truex surely would have had a shot at making the Chase. Give Truex and Manion a little more time. This duo proved they can win championships in what was previously known as the Busch Series in 2004 and 2005. Now that the dust has finally settled between the merger of Dale Earnhardt Inc. and Chip Ganassi Racing, the organization’s top driver might make the Chase. 

10. David Ragan – If you compare Ragan’s numbers from his rookie season in 2007 to his sophomore season in 2008, you’ll begin to realize that this 23-year-old kid is the future at Roush Fenway Racing. Another thing to consider about Ragan is his ability to finish races. In 74 Cup starts, Ragan has just seven DNFs. He finished every race in 2008 except for two and had five top-10 finishes in the final 10 races of the season to finish 13th in the final series standings.

11. Kevin Harvick – Harvick will be the only driver at Richard Childress Racing to make the Chase in 2009. He’ll more than likely end his 71-race winless skid, but don’t expect much more than that from Harvick in 2009.

12. Jamie McMurray – My pick to win this year’s Daytona 500 is going to surprise a lot of people in 2009. McMurray rattled off three top-three finishes in the final three races of the 2008 season and the return of Donnie Wingo as his crew chief will only make McMurray better.

What about Tony Stewart? Why not pick him? Simple. He’s got a brand-new team and new teams like that don’t make the Chase in their first season. As for Stewart’s teammate at Stewart-Haas Racing, Ryan Newman, he’s also going to need to get a year with his new team under his belt before he can contend to make the Chase. Expect to see both Newman and Stewart in the Chase in 2010.

I also left off Greg Biffle, Clint Bowyer and Jeff Burton for good reason.The three of them will not be as good in 2009 as they were in 2008. As to Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin, I think the likes of McMurray, Ragan and Truex are better drivers and are more mature. Red Bull Racing’s Brian Vickers should be considered a driver that could make the Chase if he can figure out a way to reduce his DNFs and finish in the top 10 more frequently.

Comments

45 responses to "David Exum: Jeff Gordon will lead the pack and win the 2009 Cup title". Post a Comment.
  1. 1
    Robert Wingert said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 11:05 AM

    Looking though your picks I see you put some effort in them. If your number 1 pick doesn't win, your number 2 pick will. I certainly would have placed Burton in the chase. Remove Truex and replace with Burton and you have a good chase for 2009.

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  2. 2
    Howard Englishman said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 11:09 AM

    I really believe with the off season testing that Jeff will have a great year. they have all put their heads together to see why Jeff couldnt get the handle on this new car.

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  3. 3
    Mary Ruth Andrews said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 11:12 AM

    I will be very, very happy if Jeff Gordon wins his fifth championship Cup, but... I worry about HIS crew chief. I need to remember that predictions are just that, kind of like going to a fortune teller, so I won't be disappointed if he doesn't win.

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  4. 4
    Pat Draper said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 11:50 AM

    Sorry but i don't think Regan, or Truex or Mark will make the chase. I put Tony, Burton, and Vickers in. I think Vickers will surprise everyone this year and more power to him. Burton is to consistant not to make it and Tony is h--- bent on showing he can make it again.

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  5. 5
    Dan Seibert said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 11:58 AM

    the only way jeff will win is if nascar lets him.

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  6. 6
    Daniel Kelley said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 12:08 PM

    Good choices, but I believe that Gordon is a has-been. I hope that it's Martin that gets it. I agree with #5.

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  7. 7
    tracy rogers said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 12:13 PM

    OH PLEASE MARKS IS A HAS BEEN TO MANY YEARS WITH CAT IN THE HAT,SO DANIEL YOU WILL BE WAITING A LONG TIME!

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  8. 8
    Daniel Kelley said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 12:21 PM

    Sorry, Tracy, but Mark is not a has been. Look how good he did when racing only part time. In 2007 he would have had a real good shot at the championship if he had run for it.

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  9. 9
    Robert Airheart said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 12:36 PM

    I still can't believe the idoits that think NASCAR can "let" a driver win. The car companies, sponsors, team owners and drivers would all have to be a part of it. Come on, never happen!!

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  10. 10
    janice harris said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 12:47 PM

    jeff is the one! think you are right on with the #6

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  11. 11
    Howard Englishman said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 12:48 PM

    #5, and #6, I think your has beens. Jeff is a great driver and still has some good years left.

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  12. 12
    Sheila Hawley said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 1:30 PM

    Jeff is a has been and not Mark??? How many years ago did Mark retire? Do it already Mark. By the way, Matt Kenseth was a Rookie in 2000 not 2001. He and Jr. raced together in Busch. And Jr. won the Championships in 1998 and 1999. They were both Rookies in 2000. Matt won Rookie of the year. He won the Coke 600 at Lowes his first year.

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  13. 13
    Werner Boehmert said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 1:32 PM

    NASCAR can't "let" a driver win,but they can indirectly influence an outcome with that yellow flag(which now has an official sponsor)...those "debris" cautions that keep a driver from going down a lap or can give a driver a lap back...letting a lapped car pit with the lead cars??...could cause interference in the pits...

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  14. 14
    george mann said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 2:27 PM

    I like this list just fine.

    George Mann

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  15. 15
    ed gordon said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 2:31 PM

    Go Jeff.He's probably not the driver that he once was,but he's still one of the top ten shoes in the garage and twelve make the chase,so he's got a shot to win the championship.

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  16. 16
    sandra medura said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 2:56 PM

    as a fan of gordon since he started in cup racing i would love to see him win the championship. he can do it. i do admire him for all the good he has done off the track with the jgf. i don't see him racing when ingrid and ella will not be able to travel. probably when ella starts school. i think that since he waited so long for them, he wants to enjoy all the time he can with them. just look at him when he is with ella.

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  17. 17
    Jim Bayliss said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 2:57 PM

    I think Gordon will make the chase, but highly unlikely he will win it. I would be shocked IF he did.

    Mark is NOT a has been, but not sure IF he has the tenacity to really get it done. I would like to see him do it, but not sure he really can. But I DO expect to see HIM in the chase for sure. -- -- IF things go according to plan, Carl will win it. Mark will be second, AGAIN. JJ or Kyle will be third. Biffle or Ragan 5th. Matt will be 7th, Gordon 8th. Earnhardt 9th. McMurray 10th. Kahne 11th. Burton 12th. OR maybe Vickers or LaBonte 12th.

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  18. 18
    debra bates said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 2:58 PM

    i have to go with post #9 anyways good luck jeff gordon and the #24 team #5 championship looks even better

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  19. 19
    Dick Hertz said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 3:16 PM

    Jeffy has to get back to Victory Lane first. I am surprised he didn't do nearly as well as Jimmie last year. I see Jeff finishing 4th at best this year.

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  20. 20
    Meg said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 3:38 PM

    Jeff needs to get Chad Knaus back in his pit box... He has what it takes to win. He's the smartest driver out there. Just needs more help getting the right setup and keeping up with track changes... GOOD LUCK JEFF !!

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  21. 21
    Al Lyd said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 3:52 PM

    Hope his predictions come true, Jeff needs another championship. The Drive for Five is on in 2009. Good Luck Jeff and Team 24!!

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  22. 22
    keith yocum said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 3:53 PM

    As long as Chad and Jimmie are together with the same equipment and jimmie does not get hurt in a wreck Jeff will never win another title.

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  23. 23
    Daniel Kelley said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 4:08 PM

    #11 here's your has been. Gordon has always been a whining cry baby(Rusty Wallace #2). In years past he was NASCAR's Golden Boy, other drivers would get penalized for something that Gordon could slide right through. It shocked me when NASCAR finally started penalizing him. It probably shocked him too.

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  24. 24
    Sandra LeBlanc said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 5:22 PM

    I hope you are right about JG. He is our favorite driver. I really resent others saying all Jeff does is whine. Jeff has so much class that those people who say he whines are just jealous. Anyway, it takes a certain higher class to be in the Jeff Gordon Fan Club.

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  25. 25
    jerry swiatek said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 5:22 PM

    In that past the one that came out fast did not finish the year that way, With out the practice I think that will change this year, But sorry Jr, Tony will never read the track and race all the way to the end of the race like Knauss, I,m sorry he gets better as the race and the year goes on, thats way into it. I'll bet he is the last guy to leave the speedway still trying to beay the track!

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  26. 26
    jerry swiatek said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 5:29 PM

    Had to refill my Whiskey press, On the rest I think Burton needs to be in this list, I would move Kyle up a few, more time with team together I think is best but man did they get it together quickly, and what a hungry Kid.

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  27. 27
    Meg said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 5:36 PM

    Daniel #23, since you allege that Jeff has been treated better in NASCAR than other drivers, maybe you could enlighten us of a few of those incidents that you contend happened… I didn’t realize that guys like you were still so insanely jealous of Jeff .. It really s_u_c_k_s that you can’t find any real dirt to throw at the guy, doesn’t it…

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  28. 28
    ROBERT DAVIS said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 6:28 PM

    Exum, you either have your head in the sand or are on Hendricks payroll.

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  29. 29
    Carolyn Hastings said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 6:40 PM

    Carolyn Hastings

    Jeff Gordon will WIN the Championship after the bad year in 2008 with no wins. This driver is the TOP in the field of NASCAR Cup drivers. I pretty much think the line up is almost correct. Jr NATION will be crying foul again when Jr doesn't make the chase. It is NOT all Eury Jr he has a driver that can't stop complaining long enough to drive the car. I don't dislike but he doesn't make NASCAR 42 other driver's do out on that track. Johnson is good no doubt about it and has one of the best crew chiefs but Jeff and Steve will do good. As for Jeff being a cry baby...yeah all the way to the bank and building a bigger building for all of his trophy's. Daytona WIN #4 coming up.

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  30. 30
    Meg said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 6:45 PM

    That's the best you can do, Robert ? Wouldn't it be easier to state specifics rather than innuendoes ?? Nope.. I don’t work for anybody but myself. Just a NASCAR fan and JG one at that.

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  31. 31
    Meg said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 6:48 PM

    Hey Carolyn.. Nice to see you, my friend. Are you still writing that FREE JG NASCAR newsletter ?? It's truly the best one on the internet. Did I ever tell you how much we appreciate it? I hope you don't let Robert or Daniel don't subscribe to it..

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  32. 32
    ANNE OBERGFELL said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 8:48 PM

    DONT BE SO QUICK TO RULE TONY OUT JUST BECAUSE HE HAS A NEW OWNERSHIP HE IS THE BEST THERE IS AND ALWAYS WILL BE SO GO SMOKE GO SHOW THEM WHO IS THE BEST

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  33. 33
    Jim Bayliss said:
    Feb 1, 2009 at 10:52 PM

    WHO says Gordon and Stewart are the BEST there is? Certainly not me. And certainly NOT a lot of other long time fans.
    It is pretty hard to pick a "BEST? in anything. It all depends on how you look at it. Winning the Championships doesn't necessarily make you the best there is. It might make you more consistent than others that year, or you had less crashes, or whatever. It makes you good, but not necessarily the "best". - - - - - WHen the dust all settles, I think it will be Carl Edwards. Time will tell. TIme will tell.

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  34. 34
    Tim Palmer said:
    Feb 2, 2009 at 12:26 AM

    I agree with #22... if Johnson and Knaus are working together and healthy they will be a hard team to beat. I think they will have to make mistakes not to win again, and they have not made a lot to date. I think Gordon is too high on the list, I like him and will cheer for him but you have to get rid of his crew chief to make it back to the championship. JR is way too high on the list... I can't see him making the chase at all. Only time will tell.

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  35. 35
    teresa beachler said:
    Feb 2, 2009 at 9:35 AM

    I think that Jeffs year will improve alot in 2009 and he will win the 500.

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  36. 36
    keisler bobby said:
    Feb 2, 2009 at 12:32 PM

    David Exum I sure pray you are right on!!!

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  37. 37
    Belinda Moser said:
    Feb 2, 2009 at 2:09 PM

    Hey David, Wow! I actually agree with almost all of your picks. I agree 100% that I believe either Jeff or Jimmie will win the championship this year. After Jeff having a great year in '07, I feel the 24 team CAN and WILL get another championship. Jeff has promised his team will be back to championship contention and I believe they will. I also agree with you about Kyle Busch. I think he can be a great driver but lacks maturity and patience. I also agree with you about the other RCR drivers. They seem to do well one year and terrible the next. I'm not sure I agree with you about Kasey Kahne making the chase. I still think the new ownership and other changes that have taken place may affect that team. I also agree with you that I don't see Tony or Newman making the chase this year, not yet.

    Great job with your picks! I'm READY for Daytona!! Zoooooooooooom!

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  38. 38
    Marilyn Fisher said:
    Feb 2, 2009 at 2:36 PM

    Didn't Gordon win a lot of his races and championships racing the "old" way of bumping people out and not getting pentalized for it? (The Earnhardt way a few years ago) Just asking the question.

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  39. 39
    Daniel Kelley said:
    Feb 2, 2009 at 5:30 PM

    Meg #27, you've been snorting too much of Jeff cologne or something. Jeff doesn't have a thing for me to be jealous of. I can't pinpoint the incidents that he got away with it where others were penalized. I've just never cared for Cry Baby Gordon. It seemed like every time that he lost that he would whine about someone doing this or doing that. I remember one race where he was crying because JJ didn't help him and JJ won that race. I guess that he should have let Gordon win. But, if Gordon caused an accident or whatever, it wasn't his fault. I will admit that he is a good driver, but there are other driver's just as good that probably could have done as good as him if they had been given the same circumstances.

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  40. 40
    Meg said:
    Feb 2, 2009 at 8:21 PM

    Daniel Kelley, you are a liar. Why would you say such things about Jeff. You are probably intoxicated or too high or don't even watch the races and know what's going on. Jeff is very articulate and one of the drivers who news writers seek to get an interview because he is intelligent. You need to keep your TV on and listen to the interviews after the race. Gordon is above and beyond being gracious and gives credit to those who deserve it when he loses. He’s the first to admit that it’s not his crew chief that he blames but that they just need to work harder. How can you call that whining ? What an imbecile you are to slander the character of Jeff Gordon the way you do!BUT then if I was pumping gas at CircleK, I might be jealous of him too…

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  41. 41
    andee anderson said:
    Feb 2, 2009 at 8:22 PM

    We like the list that #17 came up with better.The fire went out of Jeff when he hit the inside wall and his radiator went on down the track.

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  42. 42
    Dan Seibert said:
    Feb 2, 2009 at 9:00 PM

    I would like to see the lucky dog rule gone BEcause that is one of the ways nascar helps drivers that should not win. Only have yellow when there is a reason not when jeffy or jimmy are about to be passed or go a lap down!!!

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  43. 43
    Patty L. Wilson said:
    Feb 2, 2009 at 11:53 PM

    I agree fully, Jeff can and will win his #5 championship this year, 2009, and I pray he goes on to win another one or two. He is the best out their. GO JEFF GO.

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  44. 44
    earl sigoloff said:
    Feb 3, 2009 at 8:11 AM

    I have been a Gordo fan for years. But I have been telling all who would listen..over
    the past 5 years ...that Gordo simply can't
    win the title again.
    From his scheduled appearances for sponsors
    to his busy schedule .. tv commercials..
    endorsements etc...he is just too busy @@
    And .. the CAT ( car of tomorrow ) is just
    not the kind of a car that Jeff likes.
    He has said that .... to anyone who would
    listen. Thanks for listening to me here ..

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  45. 45
    tanya said:
    Feb 9, 2009 at 10:40 PM

    I Agree jeff can do it this year he is still the best there is out there go jeff go

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Gatorade Duel 1

Daytona International Speedway
02:00 PM, 02/11/2010

Poll PositionView All

After qualifying and the Budweiser Shootout, who is the favorite to win the Daytona 500?

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