David Exum: Jeff Gordon will lead the pack and win the 2009 Cup title
COMMENTARY
With the Daytona 500 just 14 days from now, I’ve decided to put together a list of 12 drivers that I predict will make this year’s Chase For The Sprint Cup.
Here, in order, are my predictions on how each of the 12 drivers will finish in the Chase:
1. Jeff Gordon – The four-time Cup champion won’t only make the Chase but will finally win the fifth title that he has been seeking since 2001. Gordon won’t start the Chase as the top seed, but I have confidence that this is his year. You might think I’m going out on a limb picking Gordon, but I predict he’ll win six to seven races in 2009.
2. Jimmie Johnson – The defending and three-time Cup champion will go into the Chase as the top seed, but won’t be able to beat Gordon for the championship during the final race of the season at Homestead-Miami Speedway. While my prediction about Johnson could be dead wrong, I don’t see the likelihood of him winning his fourth straight Cup championship. No NASCAR team is that good.
3. Carl Edwards – Even though plenty of people are predicting that Edwards will win his first Cup championship this year, I just don’t see it happening. Edwards will not be as dominant as he was in 2008 nor will he win another nine races like he did in 2008. If he’s lucky, he’ll win four or five. Edwards, like the rest of the drivers at Roush Fenway Racing, just aren’t going to be able to keep up with the juggernaut that is Hendrick Motorsports. According to racing-reference.info, if there was no such thing as the Chase, Edwards would have won last year’s championship by 16 points over Johnson.
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr. – He’ll make the Chase and win some races, but Junior Nation is going to be disappointed once again because he’s not going to win the Cup championship in 2009 and I doubt he ever will win the title - the problem with the No. 88 team isn’t Earnhardt Jr., it’s his crew chief, Tony Eury Jr. Until Rick Hendrick decides to pair him with another crew chief, Earnhardt Jr. will not win a championship.
5. Mark Martin – That’s right, all four Hendrick drivers will make the Chase. Martin is one of the finest drivers in the sport today and with Alan Gustafson as his pit boss, Martin is going to be a threat to win his first Cup championship.
6. Kasey Kahne – What happened to Kahne in 2008 certainly won’t happen again. He was poised to make the Chase until he failed to finish two consecutive races late in the season (Michigan and Bristol) and his Chase bid was ruined. Surely the merger of Petty Enterprises and Gillett Evernham Motorsports will help put the driver of the No. 9 Richard Petty Motorsports Dodge back in contention.
7. Matt Kenseth – Until Jack Roush realizes Kenseth needs Robbie Reiser or his equivalent as Kenseth’s crew chief, the Cambridge, Wisc., native won’t win another championship. Last year also marked the first time in Kenseth’s career that he went winless since his rookie season in 2001.
8. Kyle Busch – He was second in wins in 2008 with eight and was the top seed heading into the Chase, but Busch’s maturity level and his ability to deal with adversity remain in question. Busch has shown that when he’s good, he’s really good, and when he’s bad, he’s terrible. There’s no in between with him, and that’s a sign of his immaturity.
9. Martin Truex Jr. – The driver of the No. 1 Chevy out of the Earnhardt Ganassi stable is the dark horse for the 2009 Cup season. If not for the fact that his crew chief Kevin Manion was suspended for six races last season, Truex surely would have had a shot at making the Chase. Give Truex and Manion a little more time. This duo proved they can win championships in what was previously known as the Busch Series in 2004 and 2005. Now that the dust has finally settled between the merger of Dale Earnhardt Inc. and Chip Ganassi Racing, the organization’s top driver might make the Chase.
10. David Ragan – If you compare Ragan’s numbers from his rookie season in 2007 to his sophomore season in 2008, you’ll begin to realize that this 23-year-old kid is the future at Roush Fenway Racing. Another thing to consider about Ragan is his ability to finish races. In 74 Cup starts, Ragan has just seven DNFs. He finished every race in 2008 except for two and had five top-10 finishes in the final 10 races of the season to finish 13th in the final series standings.
11. Kevin Harvick – Harvick will be the only driver at Richard Childress Racing to make the Chase in 2009. He’ll more than likely end his 71-race winless skid, but don’t expect much more than that from Harvick in 2009.
12. Jamie McMurray – My pick to win this year’s Daytona 500 is going to surprise a lot of people in 2009. McMurray rattled off three top-three finishes in the final three races of the 2008 season and the return of Donnie Wingo as his crew chief will only make McMurray better.
What about Tony Stewart? Why not pick him? Simple. He’s got a brand-new team and new teams like that don’t make the Chase in their first season. As for Stewart’s teammate at Stewart-Haas Racing, Ryan Newman, he’s also going to need to get a year with his new team under his belt before he can contend to make the Chase. Expect to see both Newman and Stewart in the Chase in 2010.
I also left off Greg Biffle, Clint Bowyer and Jeff Burton for good reason.The three of them will not be as good in 2009 as they were in 2008. As to Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin, I think the likes of McMurray, Ragan and Truex are better drivers and are more mature. Red Bull Racing’s Brian Vickers should be considered a driver that could make the Chase if he can figure out a way to reduce his DNFs and finish in the top 10 more frequently.
