Bristol beckons: Ten drivers to watch in the Food City 500

By Bill Marx – Sporting News NASCAR Wire Service

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Kurt Busch hasn’t won at Bristol since 2006, but his five career victories at the short track tie him with Jeff Gordon for most wins there by an active driver.

Jim Fluharty
NASCAR Illustrated

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Here’s a look at the top five drivers in the Sprint Cup standings and five others to watch in Sunday’s Food City 500. All statistical references are for Sprint Cup races at Bristol Motor Speedway unless otherwise indicated. Driver rating is based on the past 10 races at the track.

The Top Five

1. Kevin Harvick, 93.5 driver rating. Harvick has one win and nine top-fives in 18 starts, but two of his worst finishes came last year (30th and 38th), part of an overall miserable season. Harvick has yet to finish outside the top 10 in 2010. He is more than capable of making it five in a row Sunday.

2. Matt Kenseth, 97.5. Kenseth is one of six active drivers with multiple Cup wins at Bristol. He has two wins and 11 top-10s in 20 starts. Like Harvick, he has four top-10 finishes this season.

3. Greg Biffle, 99.3. Biffle is the last of the drivers with four top-10s in 2010. Before his DNF last year for engine failure (finishing 39th), Biffle hadn’t finished worse than 22nd in 18 starts (no wins, eight top-10s). His average finish is 11.5; he has better average finishes at only two other tracks, Kansas and Dover.

4. Jimmie Johnson, 82.5. Johnson is winless at Bristol, and winning there is a priority. He did well in 2009, finishing third in March and leading 88 laps. Then in August he led a career-high 107 laps and finished eighth for his eighth top-10 in 16 starts. So he is getting closer.

5. Clint Bowyer, 84.9. Bowyer finished 13th and 21st last year to snap a streak of four finishes no worse than eighth (including two third-place runs). He has a 15.2 average finish in eight starts.

Five To Watch

9. Paul Menard, 55.6. Menard’s best finish is 16th in five starts, and his average finish is 24.2. Menard is one of the early-season surprises, and if he is to hang in the top 12, he needs another surprisingly good finish. He could help himself by qualifying better than he has in the season’s first four starts (29.2). That might be asking a lot; his average start at Bristol is 33.4. Then again, who expected Menard to be in the top 10 in points?

10. Kurt Busch, 91.7. Although Busch hasn’t won at Bristol since 2006, he still has five wins at the track, tying Jeff Gordon for most wins by an active driver. Busch is coming off a win at Atlanta and is brimming with confidence.

12. Scott Speed, 58.9. Speed is Menard’s running mate in the surprise category. Although he has only two Cup starts at Bristol, Speed has outshined Menard with finishes of 28th and 15th last year. If Speed really is having a breakout season, Bristol shouldn’t slow his pace. He qualified 11th and third last year. If he qualifies that well again, another solid finish could follow.

15. Kyle Busch, 105.6. Busch has underperformed so far in 2010, but that shouldn’t stop him from putting together a good run at Bristol. He has three wins at Bristol in 10 starts, including winning both races last year. Then again, if Busch fails to finish in the top 10 for the fifth straight race, we might need to find a word other than “underperform” to describe him.

22. Denny Hamlin, 98.9. Hamlin, like Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch, is also off to a slow start; his best finish so far this season is 17th at Daytona. And although he doesn’t have a win (or three wins) at Bristol like Busch, he has a solid record with five top-10s in eight starts, including finishes of second and fifth last year. Hamlin is more than capable of ending his slide this weekend and making a jump in the standings.