Big deals: Ranking the driver and team moves for 2011

COMMENTARY

By this time of year, there usually have been several driver and team moves announced for next season.

But compared to previous seasons, this year’s list of free agent moves for next year is a short one.

There’s less driver movement than in years past for two primary reasons:

One, there were few big-name drivers whose contracts were up following this season.

And two, the scarcity of sponsors these days makes it difficult for teams and drivers to go looking for new opportunities.

While there is one marquee driver switching teams next year, two others stayed home.

Here’s a look at the Sprint Cup drivers and teams making moves and our rankings on the impact those deals will have on 2011 and beyond.

1. Kevin Harvick

The Deal: They say that the squeaky wheel gets the grease. Harvick certainly did.

At this time last year, the odds of Harvick returning to Richard Childress Racing following the 2010 season were slim to none.

But after a year of whining and complaining by Harvick, few drivers are better off these days.

Thanks to the remarkable resurgence of RCR, Harvick has won three races, has led the standings for 15 consecutive weeks and is a favorite to win his first Cup championship.

Harvick was expected to be one of the top free agents on the market this year. Instead, he signed a lucrative contract extension to remain with RCR and the team has landed the popular Budweiser brand as its new sponsor.

Outlook: Given their success this season, Harvick made a smart move by staying at RCR instead of gambling on another team.

Though it has had its ups and downs, RCR represents Harvick’s best chance to continue winning races and challenge for a championship.

2. Kasey Kahne

The Deal: Kahne dropped a bombshell on the sport earlier this year when he announced he would join powerful Hendrick Motorsports in 2012.

Kahne, one of the sport’s most talented drivers, was expected to leave Richard Petty Motorsports after this season and be one of the sport’s most sought-after drivers.

But landing with Hendrick was a surprise. Most people didn’t even think Rick Hendrick had a driver opening.

And he didn’t for 2011. Instead, Hendrick struck a unique deal – signing Kahne to replace Mark Martin in 2012 and promising to find him a ride with another team for 2011.

That other team wound up being Red Bull Racing, where Kahne will race for one year before joining the Hendrick dynasty.

Outlook: Kahne, 30, should be a serious threat to win races and a championship once he joins Hendrick in 2012. With Jeff Gordon nearing the end of his career and Dale Earnhardt Jr. struggling, Kahne could quickly rival Jimmie Johnson as the biggest threat at Hendrick.

Though winning won’t be as easy at Red Bull next year, Kahne at least will be with a competitive team in 2011, giving him a chance to win a few races and possibly make the Chase before he moves on to Hendrick. And the deal is a coup for Red Bull, which can use Kahne’s talent and experience to boost its program.

3. Kurt Busch

The Deal: Busch, the 2004 series champion, was expected to be another high-profile free agent this year, but when it was apparent that few big-time rides would be available, he decided to re-sign with Penske Racing early in the season.

Though Busch has had success at Penske, he clearly had his eye on at least one other opportunity.

“I even thought that I had a shot at jumping in that 5 car, [but] a pretty boy named Kasey Kahne got picked over me,” Busch said in August.

Outlook: Busch has had an up-and-down tenure with Penske, making the Chase twice and missing it twice. He should make it for the third time this season. He won 14 races and a championship in five seasons with Roush Fenway Racing, but has not matched that success with Penske, with eight wins and a best finish of fourth in points.

Busch is one of the most talented drivers in the sport and, like his younger brother, could be a big winner with one of the top three organizations. Penske has struggled over the years to keep up with the elite teams and has never won a NASCAR championship. It’s hard to see Busch getting much better than he is currently at Penske.

4. Paul Menard

The Deal: Menard has a huge advantage over other drivers – he has a sponsor in his back pocket.

With his family’s Menards home improvement stores backing him, Menard has been able to land rides with Dale Earnhardt Inc., Yates Racing and Richard Petty Motorsports. Now he has landed his biggest deal yet, taking his sponsorship to Richard Childress Racing next year.

Outlook: Menard is in a no-lose situation. He is joining one of the top multicar teams in the sport, which should give him his best opportunity to run up front and win races. He’s currently 23rd in points – a career high – with RPM, so even if he struggles in his first year with RCR, it still could be a step up. With a top team and three top drivers – Harvick, Jeff Burton, Clint Bowyer – to lean on, Menard is the luckiest guy in the garage right now.

5. Marcos Ambrose

The Deal: Ambrose came close to winning at JTG Daugherty Racing, but coming close was getting old. After yet another heartbreaking loss at Infineon Raceway this year, Ambrose decided to move on, announcing he was leaving the team despite having a year left on his contract. He quickly landed a new deal, replacing Kahne in the No. 9 car at RPM.

Outlook: On the surface, this looks like a lateral move at best, especially the way RPM has struggled at times this year. But with the backing of Ford and an affiliation with Roush Fenway Racing, Ambrose should get more opportunities to win and run up front. His best chance to win a Cup race is on the road courses – where he is exceptional – and RPM won at Infineon last year with Kahne. If he finally wins, this deal will pay off.

6. AJ Allmendinger

The Deal: Allmendinger landed with RPM last year and showed potential in his first year with the team. Despite struggling this season, he re-signed to return next year.

Outlook: Allmendinger has flashed potential, but also has been inconsistent. Still, he was wise to stick with RPM, where he can build a foundation and gain experience. With the backing of Ford and Roush, he should get the opportunity to improve and possibly win a race.

7. Bobby Labonte

The Deal: After Ambrose told JTG Daugherty Racing he wanted to leave, the team quickly signed Labonte to replace him.

Outlook: It’s been painful watching the former Cup champion struggle since leaving Joe Gibbs Racing, first with Petty Enterprises and then with Hall of Fame Racing and TRG Motorsports. He has basically become a backmarker the past two years, which is a shame for a driver with 21 Cup wins. He may not win with JTG, but at least he will have a shot at being competitive again. Ambrose ran well on occasion at JTG, and with help from Michael Waltrip Racing, Labonte’s experience could give the team a boost. Compared to where he’s been the last five years, this is a step up for the 46-year-old Labonte.

8. Regan Smith

The Deal: Smith recently announced that he has signed a two-year contract extension to remain with Furniture Row Racing.

Outlook: It’s a shame that Smith hasn’t been able to land a ride with a more established team. He showed potential with DEI, nearly winning at Talladega in 2008. But full-time rides with top and even second-tier teams are hard to come by. At least Smith has run the full season for Furniture Row this year and has a chance to build something with the improving team. Re-signing Smith is a coup for Furniture Row and a chance for Smith to gain more experience before perhaps getting another shot with a top-20 team.