Art Weinstein: Dale Earnhardt Jr. a daring pick to make Chase in 2010
Hendrick Motorsports' Dale Earnhardt Jr. finished 25th in the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup standings. // LaDon George, NASCAR Scene
COMMENTARY
One can say two things about preseason predictions in sports. Either they come true … or they don’t.
Depending on how the season plays out, the person making the predictions can either look very smart, totally clueless, or somewhere in between.
People who want to look very smart, and are scared of looking clueless, make safe, conservative predictions. Others are more daring, and think outside the box.
That said, I will ignore the obvious predictions here for the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup season (yes, that Johnson guy will challenge for the championship yet again) and go out on a limb with daring predictions for three drivers.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr.: You just knew he’d be on this list, right? The sport’s most popular driver suffered through a miserable season in 2009, failing to win a race and finishing 25th in the Sprint Cup standings. That was then, this is now. Some people say he’s lost his competitive drive, while others say he just can’t drive NASCAR’s new car. OK, if either of those observations are true, please explain how he was ranked fourth in points in the 2008 NASCAR regular season, when NASCAR’s new car was in use full time. That’s right, just more than a year ago, he was the fourth-ranked driver in the sport after 26 races (and only a few dozen points behind the third-ranked driver, Johnson).
So, contrary to popular belief, Earnhardt Jr.’s first year at Hendrick Motorsports wasn’t a disaster. Last year was worse than a disaster, the Titanic of race seasons. It seems inconceivable that a driver that talented, with that good a team, became that bad, that fast. It seemed as though the bad finishes just kept breeding bad finishes, which can happen to any team or driver caught in a downward spiral.
Everyone, even Junior, is entitled to a bad year. Prediction: With team owner Rick Hendrick throwing every possible resource at the problem, and with Earnhardt Jr. and his team members embarrassed by their performance last year, Junior will win a race or two and make the Chase For The Sprint Cup.
• Jeff Burton: I’ve written this guy off before, and deeply regretted it. A legitimate championship contender around the turn of the century, he went through several lean years before rebounding to make the Chase from 2006 through 2008. Then, he finished 17th in the standings last year, failing to win a race after winning twice in 2008.
But there were signs of resurgence late last year. In the final four races, beginning with the arrival of new crew chief Todd Berrier, Burton finished fifth at Talladega, was ninth at Texas, then had back-to-back runnerup finishes at Phoenix and Homestead. What’s notable about that torrid four-race stretch is he was not only consistent, but he ran well on three distinctly different track styles.
That was only four races, but based on his hot finish, and Berrier’s presence, I believe Burton not only makes the Chase, but is once again a strong championship contender.
• Joey Logano: With a year of experience behind him – Logano, who turns 20 May 24 – is primed to take a major step forward. He finished 20th in the standings last year, a nice, but not exceptional, performance as a rookie.
But can Logano, who had only three top-fives and seven top-10s last year, double those numbers, which is what it will take to make the Chase? His talent is unquestionable, and Joe Gibbs Racing fields a fleet of cars second only to the Hendrick Motorsports brigade. The prediction here is that he will show great improvement, but fall just short of the promised land of the Chase.
